The hottest situation is great. China's hydrogen f

2022-08-21
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The situation is very good, China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicles may be "hot"

since February 2017, the Ministry of industry and information technology has released eight batches of new energy vehicles recommended catalogue, with a total of 1633 new energy vehicles on the list. So far, only 7 enterprises have 10 hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles on this year's recommendation list, accounting for only 0.6% of new energy commercial vehicles

according to China's national conditions, due to the high cost and limited hydrogenation stations, hydrogen fuel cell technology is more suitable for commercial vehicles with fixed routes: carry out trial operation within a certain range around the hydrogenation station, and continuously solve key problems such as fuel storage and transportation, fuel cell durability, cost and vehicle reliability through long-term trial operation. With the government's energy transformation, the increase in the number of hydrogenation stations and the reduction of its own cost, Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can enter the formal operation stage and finally be popularized to passenger cars

the technology of hydrogen fuel cell stack is not backward, and the cost pressure is the greatest.

fuel cell stack is the core component of hydrogen fuel cell, and the conversion efficiency is a key parameter to evaluate fuel cell stack. At present, the power generation efficiency of hydrogen fuel cell stack is generally% in the world. In terms of this parameter, the domestic technical level of China is not much different from that of the world

parameters of a domestic brand of hydrogen fuel cell stack

at present, the theoretical life of the world's best battery stack only stays at 8000~10000 hours (if it works for 4 hours a day, the service time of hydrogen fuel cell is about 5~6 years). Compared with the world, there are already enterprises in China that can make the life of fuel cell stacks reach 10000 hours

the most fatal problem is the cost. Hydrogen fuel cell stacks need platinum catalysts to generate electricity through hydrogen and oxygen. Platinum is the familiar platinum. Its high price makes the cost of hydrogen fuel cells more serious, which is also the biggest problem hindering the development of fuel cells worldwide. With the scale-up of the market, it is expected that the cost of hydrogen fueled electric reactors can be gradually reduced from the current 380 US dollars/kw to 40 ~ 50 US dollars/kw or even lower, so that the cost of FCEV is expected to be close to that of fuel vehicles in 2030

compared with electric vehicles, FCEV also adds a set of hydrogen fuel supply system on the basis of EV, and needs to be additionally equipped with hydrogen storage system, supercharging circulation system, drainage system and dc/dc voltage transformation device. The structural design and safety protection are relatively complex, which is also one of the reasons why FCEV costs are high

there is no shortage of "players" in China

the subsidy of the Chinese government for FC EV tying things with plastic ropes will not be refunded, and will be increased on the basis of 2015, restored to the subsidy amount in 2013, and will continue until 2020

"under heavy rewards, there must be brave men". Policy incentives will certainly become a powerful driver for the development of FCEV, giving birth to the rapid rise of this market. Under the guidance of dual subsidies from the central and local governments (if the local subsidy: national subsidy =1:1, the subsidy amount of FCEV can be as high as 1million/vehicle), the problem of high cost of hydrogen fuel cells has been effectively alleviated in China. According to the model data in the 2017 recommended catalogue, Chinese enterprises have begun to steadily promote FCEV and have entered the trial operation stage

now, large commercial vehicle manufacturers such as BAIC Foton, Zhengzhou Yutong and Nanjing Jinlong have launched fuel cell commercial models and have entered the trial operation stage; As for core components, there are not only established enterprises like yihuatong, which has been working for more than ten years, but also start-ups like hydrogen power, which have been committed to the R & D and upgrading of fuel cell stack related technologies; Leading international fuel cell companies such as Ballard and Prager are also actively seeking partners in China to expand the Chinese market

the domestic fuel cell industry has developed from the beginning of 2017 to the present, and the enthusiasm for investment and mergers and acquisitions has only increased. From Dongxu optoelectronics' investment in yihuatong, xiongtao power's investment in hydrogen power, to Snowman's investment in shuijineng, and Dayang Electric's investment in the construction of a hydrogen fuel cell system for commercial vehicles with an annual output of 17000 sets in Xiaochang, Hubei Province, the total number of orders so far has exceeded 1200 projects, and China National Heavy Duty Truck's 50billion yuan hydrogen vehicle project has settled in Jinan high tech Zone, etc., we can see from these investment cases, Fuel cells and capital are still in a "love period"

with the FCEV plan of major international automobile enterprises, the inflection point of China's market rise will also appear between 2020 and 2025

the exemplary role of the energy transformation government

infrastructure is also one of the reasons why hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are difficult to be popularized on a large scale. Because compared with power capacity increase and charging equipment installation, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles also need to re-establish sufficiently dense filling pipes, and storage and transportation is also a problem. Due to the construction cost and technical difficulty of storage and transportation of hydrogen refueling stations, the government should also support enterprises to build hydrogen refueling stations while building stations by itself. The hydrogen energy Standardization Committee has formulated the national standards for hydrogen refueling stations, so the difficulty now lies in the approval process. Local governments all feel that the construction of hydrogen refueling stations has risks, and they don't know who should bear the problems. Therefore, the reason for the slow construction of hydrogen refueling stations is not that there is no money, but that the approval process of local governments is too long

now the relationship between hydrogen refueling station and FCEV is a bit like "chicken lays eggs or egg lays chickens". Because the hydrogen refueling stations are not dense enough, people are not enthusiastic about buying FCEV; On the contrary, people are unwilling to buy FCEV, so it is of little significance to build more hydrogen refueling stations. At present, the total number of hydrogen refueling stations in China is only a single digit

a hydrogenation station needs to invest 5 ~ 10million yuan, and the enterprise building the station can receive a subsidy of up to 4million yuan from the Chinese government. Hydrogen refueling station is also an infrastructure construction, and the Chinese government is also actively preparing for energy transformation: it is a very good choice to rebuild the original gas station and make it a fuel + hydrogen integrated station. In order to serve the 2022 Winter Olympics, Zhangjiakou City is building the Beijing Zhangjiakou Olympic hydrogen energy expressway, and will take the lead in launching 100 hydrogen fuel cell buses this year, which will send signals to computers for data processing by detecting angular displacement, and finally realize the full coverage of 19 districts and counties' hydrogen refueling stations, and the development of hydrogen fuel cell buses

the Chinese government's attitude towards hydrogen fuel cells and FCEV is very clear: at the initial stage of the industry, government support, subsidies do not decline, and enterprises do not have to worry about high costs; Start with commercial vehicles (especially buses), and gradually solve the problems of fuel cell system cost, life and efficiency in the process of trial operation; The government urgently needs energy transformation. While building hydrogen refueling stations, it also encourages and supports enterprises to build hydrogen refueling stations

in this way, the government pays for research and development, sales, operation and infrastructure, and the pressure on enterprises is relatively small

hydrogen is the most abundant ancient element in the universe, accounting for about 75% of the mass of the universe. Its history can be traced back to the big bang. FCEV, which uses hydrogen as the energy source of most small and medium-sized enterprises, has the advantages of both EV and fuel vehicle. With the development of fuel cell and hydrogen production technology, this ancient element will open up a new world in the global energy field

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